Morning Brief

Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—Macro and Crypto Markets—May 31st

May 31, 2021
Last Friday finished on a risk-on tilt, with most equity indexes retreating at the end of the session, but still closing higher. Bonds were bought, pushing the 10-year yield, while gold rose to above $1,900. The dollar moved slightly up and slightly down, but is still trending lower.

In the crypto space, somehow, it seems we’re also trending lower. Many people expected (or hoped) for a reversal after the sharp retracement seen in the past two—now three—weeks. That just hasn’t happened (yet?).

Last week, BTC attempted to break free from the 40K resistance but, on Friday, changed course and retested the mid 30K’s. Over Saturday and Sunday, we went even lower, as far as $33,000. We’re now hovering around $35,500. 

It’s interesting to see the mining difficulty has effectively dropped by 16%, following the hashrate drop linked to China’s crackdown. 

During the move down, as expected, alts underperformed and the BTC Dominance index rose back from 42 to 43.

ETH lost more than 15% from Friday’s open to this Sunday session’s close. LINK lost about 20% in the same period. ADA surprised some by losing even more on Friday and Saturday, only to bounce sharply on Sunday. Interestingly, COMP and GRT followed a similar dynamic.

While there are some new stories that are worth mentioning, I want to quickly touch on the data provided by Glassnode. 

On the bearish side, a measure of unrealized profit by long-term holders (as opposed to the space as a whole) is hitting levels which previously have been associated with a long-term downturn. Personally, I see that as a potential fake signal, simply because I think the space hasn’t reached overheated levels as it has during previous bull runs.

Additionally, two charts strengthen my view. One of them is the stablecoin supply ratio, which continues to trend lower (and that’s positive, as it means there are a lot more stablecoins relative to Bitcoin, which translates into a lot of dry-powder).

The second one is inflows and outflows of the Purpose BTC ETF, which suggests that people took advantage of the lower prices to get in, not get out.

Written by: Justin d'Anethan, Sales Manager

Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update—Macro and Crypto Markets—May 31st

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