While traditional markets traded muted most of yesterday, crypto markets are swinging wildly. Investors are torn between the euphoria of an incessant rally, the unbearably close 20K mark but, also, the risk of waiting too long before taking profit and the volatility that historically plagues Bitcoin rallies -and definitely altcoin rallies.
The party-poppers are on hold until the release of this evening’s FOMC minutes from the Fed’s November policy meeting. We all know the drill by now, another stimulus = another Bitcoin rally. But, is there a real risk that the Fed hints they have done enough? If the US dollar rallies hard post the release of the Fed’s thoughts, Bitcoin could have missed a great opportunity to register a new all-time high.
The best thing about hodling is ignoring price swings, with the resolute belief that Bitcoin is one of the answers to a financial system that is built on a pile of debt. Global debt stands at $272T, with another $5T expected to be added to the pile by the end of the year.
It’s a Hodler’s delight. Bitcoin prices appear to be on a never ending journey north. Today, we have again printed a new yearly high, with resistance at $17,130 acting as a break on prices. Bitcoin is a peculiar asset — its transparency allows us to report crazy facts, like: 99.46% of all Bitcoin transactions are in profit.
It wasn’t too long ago that the weekend trading sessions provided all the action in Bitcoin. Now, it’s turning into a Monday to Friday market — maybe the institutional effect is taking Bitcoin up enough during the week, leaving the weekend bulls free to spend their time browsing Lamborghini showrooms?
New multi-year highs are fast becoming a dull headline. Bitcoin is going up, it’s almost becoming a given, which in turn, leads to more funds flowing into BTC. In yesterday’s report, we delved into rotations within the capital pool. Today, just to help drive home the message, Altcoins have under-performed as Bitcoin has marched on to new highs — the rotation into Bitcoin from alts is happening once again.
The flow of capital in traditional finance, as a rule of thumb, works like this: Risk off, money flows from stocks to bonds, and risk on: Money flow from bonds to stocks. It’s a simple model. Everything good in the economy? Great, let’s buy stocks and leave the low yielding bonds to a smaller percentage of our portfolios. Only, money is now so cheap that bonds no longer pay you a return on your capital investment. They now charge you for the pleasure of assuming the risk on their debt. That, in a word, is madness. But there we are, ‘money printer go brrrr’, bonds going to negative yields, and stocks going up because no one really likes to lose money on purpose, so they decide stocks are worth the gamble.